Social Housing Plan - Estimated total demand
Subsection five in Section six of our Social Housing Plan.
The estimated demand for social housing is based on the following approach. Demand is based on the sum of three components.
- The number of households currently living in social housing based on ABS Census 2016 (the total number of households is 3 300 based on the ABS Census 2016 as indicated above)
- The number of households who are experiencing ‘housing stress’ in the private rental market (who are not living in social housing) based on the ABS Census 2016. Housing stress is defined as occurring when households on low incomes paying more than 30 percent of their income on rent
- The number of people who are homeless in Geelong based on ABS Census 2016 (see prevalence of housing stress in Geelong).
Table 12: Estimated Demand for Social Housing - 2016
| Group | No. households | Adjustment factor | Adjusted no. of households |
|---|---|---|---|
| Households renting social housing | 3 300 | 100% | 3 300 |
| Very low-income rental households | 2 138 | 90% | 1 924 |
| Low income rental households | 2 851 | 85% | 2 423 |
| Moderate income rental households | 1 822 | 85% | 1 549 |
| Homeless households | 1 000 | 100% | 1 000 |
| Total | 10 196 |
Source: ABS forecastid K2 Planning based on SGS methodology for the City of Kingston (2019)
The total apparent need for social housing is thus 10 200 households or approximately 11 percent of households. This represents a reasonable and conservative point of departure for the purpose of developing the City of Greater Geelong Social Housing Plan 2020 - 2041.
The estimate of demand for social housing may be considered conservative because:
- the estimate uses housing stress data based on Regional Victorian income bands
- the estimate excludes households experiencing mortgage stress
- the number of homeless people (Census data) is an underestimate